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Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.0% , up 2.1% colored , gold, molybdenum, rare earth better performance . Syria crisis stimulus, followed by gold plate gold finished lower last week, rose 9.5% . Rare earth prices continue to rise , plate prices soar , Friday only the adjustments.
Last week, base metals across the board callback , aluminum, copper , zinc, lead , tin and nickel were up 4.4% , 3.5 %, 4.2 %, 2.4% . , 5.1% and 2.5%. Event upsets by Syria last week, significantly stronger dollar , base metals fell across the board . European economy to pick up the signal release , China PMI, power generation volume than expected, fundamental support industrial metals . Despite the September U.S. debt ceiling issue was underway, but the crisis in Syria continues to ferment , such as a quick victory but strengthened America's geopolitical position , coupled with the Fed's QE reduction is expected to increase in September , the dollar index , or shock upstream. Fundamentals boost the dollar index down , base metals remain volatile .
Last week, gold and silver were down 0.2% , 2.3% . Since August, the U.S. economic data has fluctuated , the Federal Reserve cut QE is expected to be weakened , coupled with other factors to increase the central bank buying , August gold rally is close to 5% , and more than 20% silver . Last week, the price of gold in the Syrian crisis had risen 1,430 U.S. dollars / ton, but the dollar was rising quickly suppressed . For some time about the price of gold has three factors , namely the United States in September QE exit expected to support a stronger dollar , the second is September 9th Congressional whether to authorize military action in Syria , three is the recent U.S. economic data and the debt ceiling party struggles disturbance . We believe that gold will factor in the war of repression stimulus and QE exit to maintain the pattern of upward shocks .
Last week , rare earth prices continue to rebound, but dysprosium , terbium metal , metal yttrium slightly. Dysprosium oxide fell by 3.2 %, mainly traders from some financial strain on downstream customers through price cuts to stimulate trade , no expansion of market volume , most traders hold stocks are still in a wait state . We believe that Ganzhou combat activities are expected to continue until September , eight issued a document called nationwide special campaign from August 15, 2013 till November 15 , the supply contraction will continue. Expected heavy rare earth prices are expected to continue to maintain the trend of steadily , while the supply of light rare breed though slightly inferior contraction elasticity and fundamentals of heavy rare earth , but the general trend in the supply contraction is also expected to remain with the rise situation.
Last week , a small metal closed flat , tungsten , magnesium, tantalum, zirconium down , molybdenum , antimony prices. Than-expected domestic economy coupled with the September season into the steel demand , steel and Additives rebound in demand is expected to continue in the short term , coupled with early because prices are low, molybdenum, manganese producers lower operating rates are expected molybdenum, manganese prices remain strong.
Maintain " Outperform -A" investment rating : a ) the supply of rare earth is in constant contraction and rising prices , a strong bullish resource properties Baotou Steel Rare Earth , Minmetals rare earth ; while NdFeB magnets face amount steady price rise of the favorable opportunity , continue to be optimistic Zhong Ke San Huan , Ningbo Yunsheng . 2 ) European , Chinese demand than expected , the dollar index to boost short-term weakness in industrial metals , it is recommended the supply side is better, costs have support of lead, zinc and tin tight supply side , the proposed attention Chihong , in Lingnan , Tin shares and other resource attributes the strong leading enterprises. 3 ) Silver State shares continue to be optimistic , recently a small reduction of non-continuous bulk price pressure , but the company's fundamentals remain positive , 3D printing stocks are expected to acquire a solid performance in 2014 , the transaction is expected to resume its rally after effects disappear . 4 ) optimistic East Sunshine aluminum electrolytic capacitor industry appear first, global warming , two lower prices in the first half after the company's significant increase in orders in the second half is expected to raise prices through the initiative , in order to enhance the stability margin under the premise , three savings through process improvement power.
Risk Warning : 1 ) global macroeconomic recovery has slowed , non-ferrous metals demand is low ; 2) QE exit than expected , resulting in global liquidity squeeze .
Non-ferrous metals : Base metals continue to fall
1, the basic metals market on August 30 one week , LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc Change rate were -3.60 % -4.01 % -2.65 % -4.10 % .
2 , gold and the dollar on August 30 one week , gold Change rate of -0.19 % . USD Change rate of 0.84% .
3 , affect the industry trend data, event August 27 news , the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) released data show that the global aluminum inventories increased in July to 2.224 million tons of 2,000 tons . IAI said that June was 2.222 million tons of global aluminum inventories . IAI data show that in July inventory of 2.358 million tons a year earlier, a decrease of 13.4 million tons. Data show that the global July unwrought aluminum stocks fell to 1.173 million tons , amended in June was 117.9 million tons, 1.363 million tons in July last year .
August 30 , Japan's fourth -largest trading company Sumitomo (SumitomoCorp.) expects the global aluminum oversupply situation will last until 2014 for the eighth consecutive year oversupply top consumer China due to demand slowdown . Light-metals trade manager ShingiYamagiwa said that next year the amount of aluminum supply will reach 994,000 t surplus this year, the excess amount is expected to be 883,000 tons . LME aluminum prices fell 12 percent during the year , forcing including Rusal , Rio Tinto , Alcoa , including major manufacturers cut production. China's second- quarter GDP grew 7.5%. The Barclays expects the global aluminum surplus next year will increase from 870,000 tons to 117 tons.
4 , Weekly Base metals : Base metals fell for two consecutive weeks , evidence of its rising power shortage we expected .
Gold : Gold fell slightly this week , long-term growth is still weak..
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